The World Cup Equations

Hey everyone, so in a follow up to World Cup Wednesday on a Monday and before the start of the Final Round of the Group Stage tonight, I thought I’d give you all a rundown of the equations in terms of what each team needs to progress to the Round of 16. So let’s get right into it.

First, a reminder, 8 teams are out with zero chance of progressing. They are: Egypt and Saudi Arabia from Group A, Morocco from Group B, Peru from Group C, Costa Rica from Group E, Tunisia and Panama from Group G, and Poland from Group H.

Group A: This is very simple. Russia and Uruguay are already through, and will just play for the top spot of the Group.

Group B: Portugal, Spain and Iran all have a chance here. Portugal and Spain have 4 points each, Iran are on 3. Portugal plays Iran, whilst Spain plays Morocco. Spain will probably win against Morocco and progress, meaning it will most likely come down to Portugal v Iran. Two draws will put Spain and Portugal through. A win for Iran will put Spain and Iran through. Iran and Portugal will only go through together in the case of a draw between them and a loss for Spain.

Group C: France is safely through. Denmark is on 3 points while Australia is on 1. Australia will need to beat Peru and hope France beat Denmark to progress. If France win by more than 1, Australia only need to win by 1. If France win by only 1, and Australia only wins by 1, it will go to goal difference, which will be equal, in which case whoever has the most cards will be knocked out. If that’s equal, the names of both teams will go into a draw and whoever gets drawn out progresses. If France win by 1 and Aus win by more than 1, they will progress. If Denmark win or draw in their match with France, France and Denmark will progress.

Group D: Croatia are safely through. Nigeria are on 3pts, Argentina and Iceland both have 1 each. If Iceland win against Croatia, and Argentina beat Nigeria, Iceland could progress on goal difference or cards depending on the scores. If Iceland lose or draw and Argentina win, Argentina will progress. If Nigeria win, they will progress.

Group E: Brazil, Switzerland and Serbia are all in with a chance of progressing to the Round of 16. Brazil and Switzerland are on 4pts each, Serbia is on 3. The Swiss should win their match against Costa Rica, which means it will come down to Brazil v Serbia. A draw will see Brazil Progress. A win from Brazil will see them progress, while a win for Serbia will see them do so. If the Swiss and Brazil draw, the both progress. If the Swiss lose and the Serbs and Brazil draw, it will go to goal difference for the Swiss and Serbs, and potentially cards, depending on the score.

Group F: Anyone can still go through in this one. Mexico are fairly safe on 6pts, Germany and Sweden are on 3 each, and South Korea are on 0. If Mexico beat Sweden and Germany win, Mexico and Germany progress. A Mexico win and a Germany loss will see the Swedes and Germans and potentially the South Koreans go to goal difference and potentially cards, depending on the scores. A draw for Mexico and Sweden and a loss for Germany will see the former two go through. If Mexico win and the Germans draw, the Germans progress with Mexico. If South Korea beat the Germans and win by at least 2, they may be in with a shot depending on the other results. This will be very interesting.

Group G: The other simple one. Belgium and England are both safely through to the Round of 16, and will play against each other for the top spot in the Group.

Group H: Japan, Senegal and Colombia are all in with a chance at progressing to the Round of 16. Japan and Senegal are on 4pts each, Colombia are on 3. If Senegal can win or draw against Colombia, they will progress safely. If Colombia beat Senegal, and Poland beat Japan, Colombia will progress, and it will come down to goal difference and potentially cards to decide who progresses between Senegal and Japan, depending on the scores. If Senegal win or draw against Colombia while Japan win or draw against Poland, Senegal and Japan progress. If Senegal lose and Japan win or draw, Colombia and Japan will progress. If Japan lose and Senegal and Colombia draw, Senegal will progress, and the second team to progress will be decided by goal difference and potentially cards.

So there you go. Those are the equations. They are complex and there are so many possibilities for teams who will progress to the Round of 16. Remember, there are only two Groups (A and G) which are already decided. There are four Groups with 3 teams vying for the top two positions, and there are two with all four teams still in the running. It will be an interesting Final Round of the Group Stage, and you never really know what’s going to happen. Enjoy!


2 thoughts on “The World Cup Equations

  1. Lots of interesting permutations. Argentina are still a chance but will need some help from Croatia. If Australia can get to a lead we will start watching the French match, but need to play well to beat what looks to be a decent Peru team. Big night ahead!

    Liked by 1 person

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