Survivor Strategiser – Final 5

Hey everyone, as promised, I’m back for the final few episodes of Australian Survivor. We’re well within the pointy end of the All Stars season now, with only four remaining after tonight’s episode. It was a surprising one to say the least, so let’s get right into it.

The episode began with 5 players remaining in the game, the Mokuta 4 consisting of Moana, Sharn, David & Tarzan, & Brooke, the last remaining member of her Vakama alliance. The next vote seemed simple for the Mokuta 4, provided Brooke didn’t win immunity.  Brooke, knowing full well she was on the outer & the obvious target, knew she had to reclaim the immunity necklace come next challenge. But she also knew she needed a backup just in case she wasn’t able to. And so, she struck up a conversation with Moana, one of the two from the Mokuta 4 who were most likely to flip. However, Moana was uncertain as to whether Brooke could be trusted. Meanwhile, it was clear that Dave & Tarzan were thick as thieves, & whilst Tarzan knew he was unlikely to win if he got to Final 2 with Dave, he was still willing to go all the way to the end with him being the genuine & trustworthy guy that he is. As to Sharn, she was thinking about how her endgame would play out, seriously considering taking Dave to the end with her so as to sit next to a big player at the Final Tribal, even though she had been talking up blindsiding him for a while.

Come immunity challenge, Brooke was ready to win & secure her place in the game. The Mokuta 4 knew that so long as one of them won immunity, they could just vote out Brooke. With Brooke getting an early lead on the others, & with Tarzan & Moana dropping their letters, & David still a fair few behind, it was down to Sharn to keep her from winning. Yet as it would happen, Sharn was just too far behind, & Brooke took out yet another individual immunity win, equaling the record for most individual immunity wins in a season. But with Brooke’s win the Mokuta 4 were thrust into an extremely difficult situation.

Back at camp, the Mokuta 4 knew their unbreakable alliance was about to come to an end. With a discussion ensuing between Moana, Sharn, & Dave, it was agreed that Tarzan would be the best option for them, so they could keep their stronger players in the game to beat Brooke & take her out of the game. However, it seemed Dave was unwilling to vote out his right-hand man, & so he began to consider other options. After a conversation with Tarzan, who had walked off to search for an idol to save himself, Dave knew Tarzan was the man he could trust, & resolved to put votes on Sharn. Meanwhile, Sharn knew nothing was ever simple with Dave & that he was clearly thinking things through. So Moana & Sharn had a conversation with Brooke, telling her to vote for Dave, however withholding the detail of Dave’s remaining idol. They also considered putting votes on Dave themselves, however, were uncertain as to whether it was a good idea.

Come tribal council, & Brooke was grinning as the Jury entered, the vast majority of them overjoyed that Brooke had taken out immunity once again. From strategizing & discussions, it seemed either Tarzan or Sharn would be leaving for the Jury Villa. After voting, JLP asked if anyone had a hidden immunity for the final time this season, &, after some contemplation, Dave decided to play the idol just in case, knowing it was the final tribal it could be played at this season. Playing the idol for himself, Dave became immune from the vote, guaranteeing himself a spot in the Final 4 with Brooke. Brooke’s vote for Dave was thereby discounted. However, after a vote for Sharn, all three of the remaining votes were on Tarzan, seeing him receive his first & final votes this season, & thus his elimination from the game. Dave had turned on his most trustworthy alliance member, & many of us were left wondering what had happened.

Analysis

Tonight’s vote seemed simple, until of course Brooke won immunity. Brooke is currently in a very similar position to the one she was in back in Season 1. At this point in the game then, she was a noted challenge beast on everyone’s radar, & had to win immunity or face certain elimination from the game. Back then, one slip up at a challenge resulted in her losing her spot in the game. In order for Brooke to progress from here, she knows she has to continue winning immunity, considering if she gets to the end she’s practically guaranteed to win, with the Jury mainly consisting of her friends.

But with Brooke winning immunity, the Mokuta 4 ended up having to split, & it went down in an odd way. Dave seemed set on keeping Tarzan in the game, which would have been a move that almost guaranteed his safety at the next tribal council if he was to lose the immunity challenge, getting him to Final 3. It appeared Dave was going to vote for Sharn with Tarzan, which would have split the vote 2-2-1, with an equal number of votes on Sharn & Tarzan, & 1 insignificant vote on Dave. If that had occurred, it would have been likely that Brooke & Sharn would vote for Tarzan in the second round, eliminating him anyway. However, Dave could have played the idol for Tarzan & saved him, securing his loyalty & taking out Sharn all in one brilliant idol play. But Dave actually voted for Tarzan, eliminating his right-hand man & a guaranteed number for him in the game, a surprising move even from David. The only explanation for his turning against Tarzan is that he wanted to show Sharn & Moana that he could be trusted to stick with them, & thus give him a little more leverage if he loses the next immunity challenge, & a way to potentially keep himself in the game.

Now, with no idols in play, it seems as if immunity is a must win for both Brooke & David, both of them the major targets, having the best resumes in game. If Dave wins immunity, it seems a sure bet that Brooke will be sent to the Jury Villa. If Brooke wins, Dave’s game may be over. However, if Sharn or Moana were to win immunity, what would ensue would be interesting to observe. The three remaining Mokuta alliance members may stick to their plan to vote out Brooke in either of these scenarios. Alternatively, they could flip on Dave & stick with Brooke. But I think that at the very least Sharn will realise that Brooke is practically guaranteed to win if she gets to the end, & of David & Brooke, Sharn would likely prefer to go to the end with Dave. Whether or not Moana comes to this realization is questionable, & yet to be seen. If one of these scenarios were to happen, there could be a 2-2 split, Sharn siding with Dave & Moana siding with Brooke. If a split was to happen, we may see another fire making challenge at tribal, one between David & Brooke. If that were to happen, either one of them could win it, considering they both have good experience in making fire, Brooke making fire to save herself in the first exile challenge, & Dave making fire with Locky without using a flint at the beginning of the season.

The next episode is sure to be a thrilling one. Moana & Sharn appear to be in safe positions. The true battle will ensue between Brooke & David, the two biggest players in this game. Both will be ready & raring to go, knowing their place in the game depends on it.

See you tomorrow night.

One thought on “Survivor Strategiser – Final 5

  1. I think they will want to keep Sharn in and go against her in the final 2 cause they would probably have a better chance of winning. I reckon Dave is next to go, the girls will stick together. Can’t wait to see tonight’s episode.

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